COVID-19 Business Survival Guide

COVID-19 is a terrible combination of spreading quickly, able to hide undetected, and lethal to a high number of people – even young healthy people.

January 2021: As predicted, too many people failed to remain vigilant or pay attention to the warnings over the holidays and now we face stricter stay at home orders. This will likely be the case until we get enough people vaccinated – in Ontario Canada, predictions indicate we need to continue working remotely until September.

As of June 14, 2020 cases are still climbing at a steady rate around the world. Over 5 months since first reported December 31, 2019 and finally restrictions are being partially lifted allowing many of us to get back at work with protective measures in place. I compared COVID-19 reported deaths against populations and found the following – notice we should all have done as South Korea did and tested everyone immediately – as they have the fewest deaths and are already back to work and school. While these numbers are not as scary as the death rate against confirmed cases these numbers are still serious enough to remain vigilant – if South Korea can reopen schools with protective measures then so can the rest of us.

• South Korea: 1 in 200,000 have died
• Canada 1 in 5,000 have died
• USA 1 in 3,000 have died
• UK 1 in 1,700 have died
• Spain 1 in 1,700 have died
• World wide 1 in 18,000 have died

These numbers bring up more questions for me – mainly why is World wide so low? Is it because COVID-19 hasn’t reached everywhere yet – or maybe many countries are not reporting accurately?

As of May 9, 2020 cases are still climbing at a steady rate around the world. Over 4 months since first reported December 31, 2019 – see WHO info on COVID-19 and notice links to Timeline and Rolling Updates and more. I also found some helpful info when thinking about getting back to work:

• In Canada: CBC Returning to Work
• In USA: CDC Guidance for Businesses

My notes from April 18, 2020: In the past few days it looks like Italy who reported 1st deaths February 22 is now seeing a decline in cases with 13% death rate (deaths/cases) which is likely the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is likely Republic of Korea with 2% and maybe with their excellent testing this is more accurate. The world shows 7% and likely many countries are not providing accurate numbers. Canada (1st death March 11) shows 4% and USA (1st deaths March 3) shows 5% – with social distancing and staying home long enough we can keep these numbers down.

Our best case scenario is 2% death rate? How accurate is this? Did they test everyone so ‘confirmed cases’ includes those that don’t show symptoms? Can we get it again next year? Does it lay dormant until we are weak with other sickness or stress? Too many unknowns – no way am I willing to risk my family, my friends, the people I work with, or anyone.

When can we safely go back to work? This is difficult to calculate with so many variables – but in looking at the current numbers and past similar pandemics, it looks like staying at home orders will last about 12 weeks – for those who have a safe workplace and are a low risk.

Without vaccines and not knowing if this virus is contained, it depends on what risk is considered safe and if we trust how we calculate the risk.

For those of us who are young and healthy and able to minimize our exposure and resist touching our face until our hands are clean… our risk is acceptable if we believe we can avoid getting infected … but if we do get infected what are the chances of not surviving (if best case rate is 2% then 1 in 50 die) and is the risk still worth it?

For the elderly and those with health issues that are at high risk – how long do we need to keep them isolated?

For students and those who normally sit among and cross paths with 1000s of others each day – how long do we need to keep them studying at home?

Do we need to remain isolated and minimize our exposure until we have a vaccine which can take over a year?

It might take 2 years like the 1918 pandemic before we have no more cases.